Asian-Pacific Integrated Model

AIM Project Team

March 1997

Contents

Preface

Introduction

Introduction

Structure of the AIM Model

Policy needs of Integration

Emission Models

GHG Emission Projections

End-use Energy Demand Model

CO2 Emission Model in Japan

CO2 Emission Model in China

CO2 Emission Model in Korea

CO2 Emission Model in India

CO2 Flux from Tropical Deforestation

SO2 Emission and Deposition

Desulfurization in the Asia-Pacific Region

World Population

Climate Change Models

Climate Change

Global Carbon Cycle

Impact Models

Water Resources

Impact on Natural Ecosystems

Impacts on Malaria

Agricultural Production

Collaboration Program

International Collaboration program

(Contact Address)

PREFACE

Policymakers always wish for a simple straightforward answer to a problem but researchers always respond with answers that are correct only within the limited scope of their study. In the case of a complex, large-scale and interdisciplinary problem like climate change, although the common recognition of the scientific findings and their implications for society is essential, such a discrepancy between the goals of key parties can hinder their mutual understanding of the problem and potential solutions. There has been an urgent need to develop a communication tool with which these group can share an immense body of knowledge in an integrated manner. The protection of our global commons of atmosphere and climate depends on such a shared understandings.

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are that of one tool that connects the scientists' world with that of policy makers. They integrate sectoral and regional scientific findings into one package for decision making. When they are well designed, their findings can be used at all levels of decision making.

The uniqueness of AIM (Asia-Pacific Integrated Model) among IAMs lies in its focus on the Asia Pacific region and in its design to support decisions at the national level. The Asia-Pacific region, with its expanding population and rapid economic growth, appears to be the locomotive of the world economy in the next century and its behavior will affect the global environment immensely. An operational decision supports tool such as AIM will make valuable contributions through the evaluation of concrete policy proposals for each country in the region. As AIM has a technology selection module that undertakes an economic evaluation of more than 300 existing and future technologies, it can provide realistic policy options to national decision makers. Its usefulness was validated by the delivery of evaluations of policy options to the government of Japan during the process of FCCC negotiations.

Another unique feature of AIM is its procedure of constructing national models under close multi-national collaboration. Eminent research institutions in the region, from China, India, Indonesia and Korea, are developing their own specific models, based on a template model of Japan. Each national model is modified to incorporate the distinct features of each country.

I sincerely appreciate the efforts of our Japanese and Asian colleagues who carried out this challenging and exciting work in complete collaboration, especially the excellent leadership of Dr. Tsuneyuki Morita of NIES for his superb project coordination and Professor Yuzuru Matsuoka of Nagoya University for his superior model building capabilities.

March 1997

Shuzo Nishioka, Director

Global Environment Research Division

National Institute for Environmental Studies