Reports
Papers
Environmental Assessments using Environment-Economy Integrated Models for the Asia-Pacific Innovation Strategy Project
The Asia-Pacific region is expected to lead world economy growth in 21st century, and its stable development with half of the world population would become a key to secure global economic activities. However, environmental problems in this region are threatening its economic growth. Moreover, less availability of scientific knowledge on environment obstructs solving the problems. Therefore, the balancing environmental protection and economic growth is an urgent issue in Asia-Pacific region for the next decade, and it is crucial from longer-term viewpoint to design more efficient and effective policies in order to introduce innovative technologies/measures into the integration between environmental conservation and economic development.
The international team of the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) Project has been developing environment-economy integrated models to assess the future scenarios of socioeconomic development and environmental change in the Asia-Pacific region as well as at global level. The team is also establishing a new type of database which supplies not only basic socioeconomic and environmental data but also key indicators linked to the data as well as several model to predict these indicators for policy makers use. The model development and database establishment were adopted as core research works for the Asia-Pacific Environmental Innovation Strategy Project (APIS).
This paper explains the outline of model development and database establishment planned for the APIS project, with special reference to the AIM/trend model.
[ Full text (PDF/832KB) ]
Models and Outputs
Prjection of Asian environment prepared for UNEP global environmental outlook
[ Slides (PDF/730KB) ]
SO2 and NOx emissions in Asian Region
[ Figures (PDF/266KB) ]
AIM-Trend Model
AIM project team has been developing the model for assessing the future environmental burdens based on the past socio-economic trends and future scenarios. By using this model, the environmental trends until 2032 in the Asia-Pacific countries have been estimated. Because we cannot be available for detailed energy balance table in several countries, following 2 types of model have been developed.
- Model-A: Based on energy balance table in IEA
- Model-B: Based on energy data in UN
In the following sections in this document, we will introduce the structure of each model, how to use this model, and the future estimation by using this model.