Workshop on GHG Stabilization Scenarios


January 22 - 23, 2004
At Ohyama Memorial Hall, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 305-8506, Tsukuba, Japan

National Institute for Environmental Studies
Stanford Energy Modeling Forum


Workshop on GHG Stabilization Scenarios group photo


First day: January 22, 2004

08:30-09:30 Welcome Address
Dr. S. Nishioka, NIES
Yasuo Takahashi, Ministry of the Environment
Introduction and Objectives (PDF)
Mikiko Kainuma, NIES
Key Issues in the Design of Stabilization Scenarios (PDF)
John Weyant, EMF
Session Ⅰ: Integrated Assessment / Climate Economic Modelers
Chair: Mikiko Kainuma
09:30-10:30 Overview of the AIM Model (PDF)
Yuzuru Matsuoka, Kyoto University
AIM Multigas Model (PDF)
Junichi Fujino, NIES


Chair: Francisco de la Chesnaye
10:45-12:15 Technology and Stabilization (PDF)
Jae Edmonds, PNL/JGCRI
Ongoing work (IMAGE 2.2) on stabilisation scenarios (PDF)
Detlef van Vuuren, RIVM
Stabilization Scenarios and Implications for India (PDF)
P.R. Shukla, IIMAHD


Chair: Yuzuru Matsuoka
13:15-15:15 MARIA with learning effects and a development of multi-region and multi-sector IAM - Project Phoenix (PDF)
Shunsuke Mori, TUS and RITE
How to model the future scenario for China with a Dynamic Economy (PDF)
Jiang Kejung, ERI
Stabilizing Long-Term Temperature; The Issues of Uncertainty, Timing, Costs, and Technology (PDF)
Richard Richels, EPRI
Climate Target - Multigasand CO2 Sequestration - (PDF)
Atsushi Kurosawa, IAE


Chair: John Weyant
15:45- Addressing Non-CO2 Gases in GHG Scenarios (PDF)
Francisco de la Chesnaye, USEPA
Alternative pathways toward stabilization (PDF)
Nebojsa Nakicenovic, IIASA
Session Ⅰ Open Discussion


Second day: January 23, 2004

Session Ⅱ: Climate Modeling
Chair: Tom Kram
08:30-10:30 Climate Modeling for Global Warming Projection at the Meteorological Research Institute (PDF)
Akira Noda, MRI
ENSEMBLES - a European project for climate change modeling (PDF)
Ulrich Cubasch, ZEDAT
Climate Sensitivity: Uncertainties & Learning (PDF)
Michael Schlesinger, Univ of Illinois
Issues in atmospheric stabilization considering multiple gases (PDF)
Chris Forest, MIT


Chair: Jae Edmonds
11:00-13:00 The effect of carbon-cycle climate feedbacks on the emissions requirements for CO2 concentration stabilization (PDF)
Tom Wigley, UCAR
Climate change experiments with a high-resolution climate model – current status and future plans (PDF)
Toru Nozawa, CCSR/NIES
No title (PDF)
Haroon Kheshgi, EMREC
Session Ⅱ Open Discussion

-Lunch Break-

Chair: Hideo Harasawa
14:00-14:20 Remarks on GHG Stabilization
Toshiro Kojima, Ministry of the Environment
Session Ⅲ: Impacts Modeling
14:20-15:00 Impact assessment with AIM model (PDF)
Kiyoshi Takahashi, NIES
Climate impacts: ongoing work with IMAGE 2.2 (PDF)
Tom Kram, RIVM


Chair: Hideo Harasawa
15:30-16:30 Synthesizing GHG Stabilization with impacts and adaptation (PDF)
Gary Yohe, Wesleyan University
Grappling with atmospheric concentration pathways for CO2using GTEMLR (PDF)
Hom Pant, ABARE
Session Ⅲ Open Discussion
Workshop Wrap-up Discussion
Chairperson: Dr. Toshihiko Masui (NIES, Japan)
16:30-17:30 EMF Experience and New Climate Stabilization Study
John Weyant, EMF
17:30- Workshop Conclusion

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